Hubris.
Ok, so that makes a very short post. But that is what it is. When you run for office and the leader of your party has said things like this:
“I am absolutely certain that generations from now, we will be able to look back and tell our children that this was the moment when we began to provide care for the sick and good jobs to the jobless; this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal.”
Or this:
"Change will not come if we wait for some other person or if we wait for some other time. We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are the change that we seek."
...you have to expect that there is going to be a certain amount of disappointment and disillusionment when these things manifestly DO NOT HAPPEN.
We already know that functional unemployment is actually somewhere between 16 and 20%, if you count the people whose benefits have run out and who have stopped looking. This is not an inconsequential number, and it did not happen by accident. Marketplace uncertainty is adding to the problem; businesses are waiting to see how the financial regulations will affect them, what Obamacare is going to cost them, and if Congress or the EPA enacts some variety of carbon tax that they will have to pass along to consumers.
Most people have insurance, and the indigent can use Medicaid. Many other people are on Medicare. True, Obamacare passed, but, at best, it will provide a means for 15% of citizens to get insurance who do not presently have it. The potential costs are enormous, so large that several years of revenue will be raised before benefits begin. Even worse, the baldfaced statements, by the president and others, that people will be able to keep the insurance they have if they want is a horselaugh. Every incentive goes the other way for business, who will almost certainly withdraw from the market as primary suppliers of insurance. The net result will be a de facto public option as private insurers exit the market as well. And this is not a surprise. Advocates for Obamacare, at various times, pronounced it to be a precursor to single payer.
As far as the eco-malarkey, last time I looked the oceans are fine (if a little oily in places), and the earth isn't going anywhere. WE might be, but the earth is here for the long haul and will be thundering around its orbit in space long after we follow the Dodo, the Passenger Pigeon and the dinosaurs to dust.
And change, however we like the word, simply means that things are different than they were. Change is not necessarily something that goes from good to bad or bad to better. It can also go from something that is quite bad enough to something else that is far worse.
Kind of like now, for instance.
Hubris is, simply, overweening pride and ambition that the gods used to slam whenever they saw it.
This slam begins November 2. Stay tuned.
For what it's worth, I submit that the hammering the GOP got the last two election cycles was the same sort of thing. They stopped paying attention to what the public wanted and expected, and found themselves out on the street looking for work. Unlike many of the rest of us, they found some...usually with lobbying groups.
ReplyDeleteAlmost certainly, they will win one House of Congress this fall. And should they fail to do what they are promising to do, we may very well see a complete overhaul of the Republican party, which, frankly, is already happening at the grass roots; Tea Party activists are moving into the GOP and taking over.
I admit I don't understand Obamacare very well, but I think it's a step in the right direction. I don't understand why Americans should be the only chumps in the developed world that don't all have insurance even though we're paying the most for medical care. And if businesses get a better deal going with Obamacare, why is that a problem?
ReplyDeleteI do know enough to call bs on your environmental stance here. You should take a closer look at the oceans. They are definitely not fine.
http://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/earth/oceanography/great-pacific-garbage-patch2.htm
And who exactly has been showing concern that the planet may drop out of orbit?
Also, you really don't see possible human extinction as a problem? (I guess that would explain the stance on health care.)
Seth, IMHO, Obamacare is worse than if Congress had just left health care alone. The entrance cost for the program (and many of its innumerable riders) is huge, the outyear costs are ever increasing, both at the federal and state levels, the pass along cost to people who will have to buy health insurance or pay a fine is large, too, and the insurance cooperatives involved will make it possible for businesses to dump their employees out of business funded plans and into individual or government subsidized plans. Nice for business; but voters were specifically promised that they would be able to keep their health insurance, and that simply isn't going to happen. We are already seeing rates rise because kids into their twenties are mandated to be eligible to stay on their parent's insurance policies, and people with pre-existing conditions cannot be excluded from buying insurance in many areas today. If someone is already sick and the company HAS to sell them a policy (the price of which cannot be commensurate with the risk), what do you think is going to happen to the price of everyone else's policies? They inevitably have to go up to cover the other person, the result being that everyone has to pay more. Alternatively, you will see insurance companies leaving the health insurance business, and it is already happening.
ReplyDeleteThe oceans thing was hyperbole. There are places where there are significant pollution problems, but Mother Nature is very good at dealing with that stuff. She has done it for millions of years, and will do it some more after we have left this realm of existence. And you misread the point of the world continuing to thunder about the sun. I didn't say there was some problem with that...I was simply pointing out that the world will continue doing what it does, even if we are no longer passengers aboard for the ride. And as far as human extinction goes, I doubt that it is anything I need to worry about. The dinosaurs were around for one hell of a lot longer than we have been to this point, and they came to an end. We might, too. We also might not. Humans are pretty canny, and God may have something else in store for us, anyway. But any way you care to look at it, I doubt that I am going to be around for the decision.
Again, I really don't understand the ins and outs of health insurance. I don't know what "outyear" means. But if costs are going up because sick people are being covered... well isn't that just part of the deal? That's what its for, right? What's the point of insurance that's only for healthy people?
ReplyDeleteAnd mother nature is good at adapting. But she's never dealt with 7 billion humans cranking out non-biodegradable waste before. I think mother nature's fix is going to be to start killing us off. That's generally how she handles these things. And that's not a very pleasant solution for us. Even if the real problems don't arrive until you and I are dead, that doesn't make it ok. We're still responsible for our actions. C'mon, man. You have kids. Is that what you want your legacy to be?
"Outyear" in terms of budgeting basically means subsequent years from the current budgeted year. What happens is that each budget year is agreed to and subsequent years are projected from that (based on the growth of new programs, expansions of existing programs, or simple inflation), giving legislators and budgeters a chance to consider the longterm scope of new expenditures.
ReplyDeleteThe point is that insurance is a bet that insurance companies make with subscribers. They bet you will stay healthy, or at least not use up all the money you paid them, and you are betting that, at some point, you will...or you would just like to hedge a bet with your health in the event that you MIGHT get sick (which would destroy your savings otherwise). But telling an insurance company that it HAS to give a policy to someone who is already sick, and at a price they can afford, is like telling a bookie the day after the Super Bowl that some people are coming around to bet on the big game, and that he has to take the bets. So when the government mandates coverage like this, it is essentially parking the costs for the care of the uninsured sick onto health insurance companies. Not being fools and being in the business to make money, they will raise the price of coverage to everyone else to cover the costs they are incurring for the sick. Not being fools, people will then BUY coverage only when they become sick and save their cash in the meantime. Not being fools (entirely), Congress then said that EVERYONE has to either have coverage from a private employer, buy coverage individually, or pay a penalty for not having coverage. Basically, in return for foisting off the sick onto private insurance companies, the federal government is guaranteeing them more customers to balance the books. You don't get something for nothing.
Which is why Obamacare is basically a shell game. Now, the ultimate discussion is far longer than this, but I would like a system that is actually based on an active health market. We have no way to bargain prices on health care down because there is no market transparency. Doctors charge what they want and insurance pays them. Hospitals vary in prices of EVERYTHING, and we never see where the best deals can be found. And until and unless we push it, and force some market clarity, prices are going to rise and we will keep throwing money at a problem that is largely self-inflicted.
As for the environment...I am concerned but not hysterical. The planet is locally messy in a few places, but is largely uninhabited. Take a look at the globe and see where people actually live. Basically, you could take every person on the planet now, put them in Texas, and they would have a population density less than that of New York City. And people manage that every day.
All waste is degradable. The question is how long it is going to take. Will it be gone in out lifetimes? Meh, maybe not. But it will be gone. All of that said, I am very concerned about the world my girls will live in when I am gone, but I am far more concerned that they live in a free country where they will be able to find work that pays them well enough to live comfortably and maybe have a better life than I have had or hope to have.